The Thinking Press
Note: this is an abridged version of a talk I gave to Slim Foundation students and scholarship winners in Mexico City last month (along side Bill Clinton, Bradley Cooper, James Clear, and others.)
What Does It Take To Change The World?
Some might say that changing the world starts with a sudden flash of inspiration, sent from the divine and received by a genius who always knows exactly what to do with it. There are stories like this throughout history: Newton, a falling apple, and gravity; Archimedes, a bath tub, and eureka; James Watt, a kettle, and the steam engine; Emmet \"Doc\" Brown, a slip in the bathroom, and time travel. Is this the way the world changes?
If only it were that simple. As great as these stories sound, they are just stories.
So let's try again…
What Does It Take To Change The World? (redux)
Change is a cycle, not an event. It typically requires hundreds (if not thousands) of threads from hundreds of people all coming together at the right time and place. Change exists on a continuum, but we can probably pick out some of the key characteristics and paint an arc through them all.
1. Insight. Rather than a 'eureka' moment, change usually starts with something much more subtle. Not divine inspiration, but an inkling. An insight. An observation. The identification of a problem which is worth solving.
2. Context. Every insight or observation happens in the context of dozens (nay, hundreds) of other insights from other people, or groups of people. In most cases, every new insights adds to the context of all, but once in a while, all these threads start to come together in unusual or unexpected ways.
3. Breakthrough. Resulting in a new product, service, idea, or tool which represents a major step forward for the world, and everyone in it. A step forward which heralds a new dawn, opening up new possibilities which just weren't possible before. Possibilities which aren't just a little bit better - faster, cheaper, more productive - but are significantly better than what came before. A step function change which amplifies human activity, creativity, and productivity in significant ways.
4. Accessibility. To truly change the world, it is insufficient for these improvements to be limited to a small group - they need to be available to increasingly large groups and populations. To everyone, over time.
5. Iteration. The very best new capabilities also get better through this increased accessibility, via positive feedback loops.
6. Foundation. Providing building blocks for an ecosystem of new inklings, ideas, observations, and insights, so that others can build on top of them in the future.
Leading to new ideas and a broader context, where threads come together in ways which open up major new opportunities, for all, which get better through use, and provide building blocks for the next generation.
With so many concurrent requirements, it's no wonder that these scenarios happen rarely. One example I'm sure you are familiar with is the printing press; surely an idea which most would agree has gone on to change the world.
The Printing Press
The printing press was born of a realization that hand written manuscripts were just not going to cut it as a way to distribute information: too slow, too expensive, and required significant skills which were rare at the time, which put the acquisition and distribution of knowledge firmly within reach of only the wealthiest and most influential organizations (most prominently, religious institutions).
Let's see how it stacks up against the elements in the arc above.
1. Insight. Hand-copied manuscripts weren't going to cut it.
2. Context. Many people and groups were working on parts of a solution: printing blocks, moveable type, various innovations in inks, and so on.
3. Breakthrough. It was the Gutenberg Press which brought all of these threads together, and successfully mechanized the use of type on vertical sheets of paper in a reproducible and cost effective way.
4. Accessibility. The press dramatically reduced the marginal cost of publishing, ushering in (amongst many), the scientific revolution.
5. Iteration. Presses were not perfect out of the gate - and even with a huge opportunity ahead, there were lots of barriers to overcome (not least, that revenues from printing were low because literacy levels were also low, reducing the size of the addressable market and limiting a valuable source of investment in future improvements)
6. Foundation. The broad distribution of information in this way created a remarkable foundation for almost all improvements thereafter. Indeed, you can draw a pretty straight line from the printing press to scientific, industrial, and digital revolutions, and potentially, to whatever comes next.
From Ink to Intelligence
Just as the printing press revolutionized information spread in the 15th century, we now face another potential world-changing innovation. In our digital age, the next frontier isn't just about sharing knowledge—it's about processing, understanding, and creating it at new scales.
Enter Artificial Intelligence: a technology that could be as transformative now as the printing press was then. Like Gutenberg's invention, AI may democratize access to capabilities once limited to a few, enhancing human intellect and creativity in unexpected ways.
Let's apply our framework for world-changing innovations to AI and compare it to its historical predecessor.
The Thinking Press
It feels like we are on the precipice of that next cycle of world-changing revolution, with the maturation of artificial intelligence.
AI is probably the single biggest technical shift in how we are going to interact with data, information, and each other, since the advent of the earliest internet. Organizations that invested in the early internet went through a period of remarkable growth in the past 30 years, which begs the question: is there a chance that AI will drive similar levels of growth (and transformation), in the next 30 years?
Let's see how it stacks up against our change criteria.
1. Insight. Systems that learn by example (instead of being explicit programmed with rules), can exhibit behavior which approximates human intelligence.
2. Context. Many people and groups were working on parts of a solution: machine learning research and development, faster processing from accelerated computing, and access to swathes of computing resources as a utility in the cloud.
3. Breakthrough. AI brings these threads together into a series of new mathematical models which have remarkable emergent capabilities for reasoning, recall and creativity.
4. Accessibility. These models - made available as chat assistants and agents - are extremely easy to use and employ, being never harder to use than explaining your intent.
5. Iteration. Feedback loops abound in AI. AI improves through its usage and can be combined with human feedback to build faster, smarter, and more efficient models.
6. Foundation. AI provides completely new primitive, low-level software components which can be used to build entirely new categories of products, improve existing apps, and accelerate processes through automation. Models can also be combined in new and interesting ways, making existing systems better as new models are built.
On the surface, AI checks a lot of boxes, which begs a broader question.
Will Artificial Intelligence Change The World?
For the intellectually honest, today's answer is: maybe.
Technology capability tends to follow an 'S-curve' over time: starting with a period of incremental improvements which compound into a exponential increase in capability, followed by a period of diminishing returns as the natural limits of the technology are realized (and the next-generation starts to mature).
Unfortunately, you can only see the curve behind you, so it's hard to accurately position where we are. Given the speed at which artificial intelligence is progressing, it is tempting to pitch us right in the middle of the curve, in the high-gradient zone.
But it is more likely that we are in the bottom right hand corner - since it is still very, very early in the journey.
Artificial Intelligence may yet change the world.
The journey of world-changing innovations, from the printing press to AI, shows us that transformative change is rarely instant. It's a process of insights building on each other, breakthroughs becoming accessible, and iterations creating new foundations. As we stand at the frontier of AI's potential, we must remember that its impact will depend not just on the technology itself, but on how we choose to develop and apply it.
For students and newcomers to AI, this is an exciting time of opportunity. Your fresh perspectives and ideas could be the catalyst for the next breakthrough. Engage with AI, experiment with it, and most importantly, think critically about its implications and possibilities. The future of AI isn't predetermined – it's waiting to be shaped by curious and innovative minds like yours.
Whether AI will truly change the world remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: your engagement with it today could help steer its course tomorrow. So dive in, explore, and be part of the next chapter in the ongoing story of human innovation.
Note: huge thanks to the Slim Foundation for the invitation to a unique event and experience!